Tax structure and state economic growth during the Great Recession

• Explores statistical relation between state/local tax structure and economic growth.
• Pooled data from 2004–2010, 50 states.
• Focuses on growth through the Great Recession.
• Present results for one-percent, revenue-neutral shift in tax structure.

Concern about the effect of taxes on economic growth and development in the United States is longstanding. While most studies are concerned with the growth impacts of tax burden, marginal rates, or the impact of a particular tax, there are few works that examine the impact of tax structure in the way it is defined in this work. Here, tax structure is defined as the shares of revenue collected by various taxes. Using a pool of data on the 50 states between 2004 and 2010, this paper explores the relationship between state and local tax structure and growth of real per-capita GDP through the Great Recession centered in 2008. The results are used to generate estimates of the growth impacts of revenue neutral changes in tax shares.