State of the Union addresses and presidential position taking: Do presidents back their rhetoric in the legislative arena?

Politicians and presidents are routinely criticized for the mismatch between their policy statements and their legislative actions. While a few studies explore presidents’ support for policy commitments made during their election campaigns, no study systematically examines this relationship for presidents throughout their terms. To determine whether presidents follow through on their policy statements, I examine presidential mentions of three policy areas in State of the Union addresses from 1953 to 2000 and presidents’ subsequent positions on floor votes in Congress. The results indicate that rhetorical attention to economic policy and foreign relations in these speeches increases the chances that presidents will take positions on legislation in these same areas, but there is a disconnect between the rhetoric and their actions on health and social welfare policy. I suggest that this difference can be attributed to their anticipation of success in each policy area because presidents do not want to attach themselves to legislative defeats.