Dynamical modeling and lifetime analysis of geostationary transfer orbits

The dynamics and lifetime reduction of geostationary transfer orbits (GTOs) are of great importance to space debris mitigation. The orbital dynamics, subjected to a complex interplay of multiple perturbations, are complicated and sensitive to the initial conditions and model parameters. In this paper, a simple but effective non-singular orbital dynamics model in terms of Milankovitch elements is derived. The orbital dynamics, which include the Earth oblateness, luni-solar perturbations, and atmospheric drag, are averaged over the orbital motion of the GTO object, or, as needed, also over the orbital motions of the Moon and Sun, to eliminate the short-period terms. After the averaging process, the effect of the atmospheric drag assumes a simple analytical form. The averaged orbital model is verified through a numerical simulation compared with commercial orbit propagators. GTO lifetime reduction by using the luni-solar perturbations is studied. It is shown that the long-period luni-solar perturbation is induced by the precession of the GTO orbital plane and apsidal line, whereas the short-period perturbation is induced by the periodic luni-solar orbital motions. The long- and short-period perturbations are isolated and studied separately, and their global distribution with respect to the orbital geometry is given. The desired initial orbital geometry with a short orbital lifetime is found and verified by a numerical simulation.