A methodology to support strategic decisions in future human space exploration: From scenario definition to building blocks assessment

• A methodology to support strategic decisions for space exploration is presented.
• An incremental path towards Mars is implemented through intermediate destinations.
• A global reference human space exploration scenario is defined.
• The missions' architectures are defined and the relevant building blocks are assessed.
• The Cis-Lunar mission concept is discussed in detail as example case.

The human exploration of multiple deep space destinations (e.g. Cis-Lunar, NEAs), in view of the final challenge of sending astronauts to Mars, represents a current and consistent study domain especially in terms of its possible scenarios and mission architectures assessments, as proved by the numerous on-going activities about this topic and moreover by the global exploration roadmap. After exploring and analysing different possible solutions to identify the most flexible path, a detailed characterisation of several Design Reference Missions (DRMs) represents a necessity in order to evaluate the feasibility and affordability of deep space exploration missions, specifically in terms of enabling technological capabilities.The study presented in this paper was aimed at defining an evolutionary scenario for deep space exploration in the next 30 years with the final goal of sending astronauts on the surface of Mars by the end of 2030 decade. Different destinations were considered as targets to build the human exploration scenario, with particular attention to Earth–Moon Lagrangian points, NEA and Moon. For all the destinations selected as part of the exploration scenario, the assessment and characterisation of the relative Design Reference Missions were performed. Specifically they were defined in terms of strategies, architectures and mission elements. All the analyses were based on a pure technical approach with the objective of evaluating the feasibility of a long term strategy for capabilities achievement and technological development to enable future space exploration.This paper describes the process that was followed within the study, focusing on the adopted methodology, and reports the major obtained results, in terms of scenario and mission analysis.