Retrospective and concurrent predictors of the mental health of children in care

The paper reports retrospective and concurrent predictors of baseline mental health estimates for 347 children recruited to an epidemiological study of children in foster and kinship care in New South Wales, Australia. The study design addresses limitations of previous risk-related research with this population. While a large number of potential risk and protective factors were associated with children's mental health, most were confounded. Predictors identified in two-stage hierarchical regression models accounted for 0.31 of the variance of continuous mental health scores. The key predictors were: “age at entry into care”; developmental difficulties (intellectual disability and reading problems); three specific types of maltreatment; recent adverse events; and factors referring to placement insecurity or lack of permanence. Mechanisms accounting for these findings are proposed, with particular reference to cumulative exposure to adversity, attachment theory and foster care practices. Implications for social care policy include the need to identify children who are in need of care at younger ages, and the harmful effects of perceived impermanence for children in long-term care.