Simulated yield and profitability of five potential crops for intensifying the dryland wheat-fallow production system

Greater precipitation use efficiency (PUE) and economic returns by increasing cropping frequency through the addition of summer crops to the dryland winter wheat-fallow (WF) cropping system have been reported in the semiarid Central Great Plains of USA. However, due to the highly variable nature of precipitation and uncertain water availability, selection of a crop with assured positive net returns to add to the system to increase cropping frequency is a challenge in the absence of reliable seasonal precipitation forecasts. The objective of this study was to evaluate long-term yields and net returns of several potential summer crops at various soil water contents at planting to assess their potential use in increasing dryland cropping frequency. Three grain crops [corn (Zea mays L.), canola (Brassica napus), and proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.)] and two forage crops [foxtail millet (Setaria italica L. Beauv.) and spring triticale (X Triticosecale rimpaui Wittm.)] for which the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) had been calibrated at Akron, CO and/or Sidney, NE, were selected for investigation through modeling. The calibrated model was used to simulate yield responses of the crops to 25, 50, 75 and 100% of plant available water (PAW) in the soil profile at planting using recorded weather data from Akron, CO and Sidney, NE (1948-2008). Average costs of production and 10-yr average commodity prices for northeast Colorado were used to calculate net returns for each of the crops at the varying PAW levels. All crops showed significant (p < 0.05) simulated yield increases in response to increasing initial PAW levels when those changes occurred in the entire 0–180 cm soil profile. The two forage crops gave greater net returns than the three grain crops for all initial PAW levels when calculated with 10-yr average prices received. Among the grain crops, proso millet was slightly more profitable than corn at Akron, while corn was the least profitable crop at Sidney. Using current commodity prices (13 September 2011) resulted in proso millet being the least profitable crop at Sidney, while corn was the most profitable grain crop at Akron and showed net returns that were similar to those found for the forage crops. The results of this study may guide the selection of a spring- or summer-planted crop and help farmers assess risk as they contemplate intensifying the WF system by using a measure or estimate of PAW at planting.

► Dryland yields of three grain crops and two forage crops were modeled with RZWQM2.
► Simulated yields increased with increasing available water at planting.
► Probabilities of achieving break-even yields increased with increasing soil water.
► Net returns were generally greater for the forage crops than the grain crops.