Prediction of cadmium enrichment in reclaimed coastal soils by classification and regression tree

Reclamation of coastal land is one of the most common ways to obtain land resources in China. However, it has long been acknowledged that the artificial interference with coastal land has disadvantageous effects, such as heavy metal contamination. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for cadmium enrichment levels and assess the importance of affecting factors in typical reclaimed land in Eastern China (DFCL: Dafeng Coastal Land). Two hundred and twenty seven surficial soil/sediment samples were collected and analyzed to identify the enrichment levels of cadmium and the possible affecting factors in soils and sediments. The classification and regression tree (CART) model was applied in this study to predict cadmium enrichment levels. The prediction results showed that cadmium enrichment levels assessed by the CART model had an accuracy of 78.0%. The CART model could extract more information on factors affecting the environmental behavior of cadmium than correlation analysis. The integration of correlation analysis and the CART model showed that fertilizer application and organic carbon accumulation were the most important factors affecting soil/sediment cadmium enrichment levels, followed by particle size effects (Al2O3, TFe2O3 and SiO2), contents of Cl and S, surrounding construction areas and reclamation history.