Definition of sanitary boundaries to prevent ISAv spread between salmon farms in southern Chile based on numerical simulations of currents

The infectious Salmon Anemia virus (ISAv) is a pathogen that mainly affects the Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar). It was detected in Norway in 1984 and in June 2007 appeared in Chile, producing a drop of more than 30% in the country's production level. It is expected that with certain regularity, outbreaks will continue to appear in Chile without the need of reintroducing the virus from foreign countries. We present a numerical study of the influence of winds and tides in the dispersion of lagrangian particles to simulate the transport of ISAv in the Aysen region, in southern Chile. This study combines the use of numerical models of the ocean and atmosphere, lagrangian tracking and biological aspects of ISAv infections. As in previous results, a wider dispersion of ISAv was observed during spring tides. Temporal changes in wind significantly modified the transport of viral particles from an infected center. Under similar forcing conditions, the areas of risk associated to culture sites separated by a few kilometers could be very different. Our main results remark the importance of the use of a detailed knowledge of hydrographic and atmospheric circulation in the definition of boundaries for sanitary management areas. We suggest that a methodology similar to the one presented in this study should be considered to define sanitary strategies to minimize the occurrence of native outbreaks of ISAv.