Marsh expansion at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California

Studies of shoreline progradation along low-energy vegetated shorelines have been limited, as these environments are generally experiencing erosion rather than deposition, with extreme erosion rates frequently found. This study examined yearly changes along a vegetated shoreline at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California, using aerial photography, to determine the roles of climatic, watershed, and coastal process in driving shoreline changes. In addition, sediment accumulation was monitored on a yearly basis at 48 locations across the marsh to determine the role of geomorphic factors in promoting accumulation. Calaveras Point Marsh was found to have expanded from 49.26 ± 5.2 to 165.7 ± 4.7 ha between 1975 and 2005. Although the rate of marsh expansion was not positively correlated with yearly variability in precipitation, local streamflow, delta outflow, water level observations, population growth, or ENSO indices, marsh growth was greater during years of higher than average temperatures. Warmer temperatures may have promoted the recruitment and growth of Spartina foliosa, a C4 grass known to be highly responsive to temperature. Other factors, such as the formation of a coastal barrier, a recent change in the location of the mouth of the Guadalupe River, and channel readjustment in response to diking are credited with driving the bulk of the marsh expansion. Sediment accumulation was found to be high closest to channels and to the shoreline, at low elevations and in recently vegetated marsh. Globally, the pace of sea level rise exerts the primary control on wetland development and persistence. However, at local geographic scales, factors such as tectonic events, modifications to natural sediment transport pathways or land use changes may overwhelm the effects of regional sea level rise, and allow for wetlands to develop, expand and persist despite rapid sea level rise.