Impact of climate and hydrodynamics on sole larval immigration towards the Tagus estuary, Portugal

Spawning grounds of the soles, Solea solea and Solea senegalensis, are distant from the estuarine nurseries where juveniles concentrate. Recruitment of these species is highly dependent on the success of the larval migration towards the inshore nursery grounds. Unfavourable climate and hydrodynamic circulation may lead to high mortality rates at this stage. The relation between river drainage, NAO index and the North-South wind component intensity over the three months prior to the end of the estuarine colonization and the densities of S. solea and S. senegalensis in the nursery grounds were investigated for both species based on a discontinuous historical dataset (from 1988 to 2006) for the Tagus estuary. Multiple linear regression models were developed for sole density and environmental data (separately for each species). Results showed that river drainage is positively correlated with juveniles' densities of both species, possibly due to the existence of chemical cues used by larvae for movement orientation. NAO index and the North-South wind component intensity relations with soles densities were non-significant. It was concluded that the high complexity of the Portuguese upwelling system makes it hard to detect causal relations of the environmental variables tested. The importance of river flow for coastal ecosystems was stressed. Since climate change scenarios predict a strong decrease in rain fall over the Portuguese river basins, as well as a concentrated period of heavy rain in winter, it was hypothesised that future river drainage decrease over much of the year may lead to lower recruitment success for soles, especially for S. senegalensis.