Global optimization of a deuterium calibrated, discrete-state compartment model (DSCM): Application to the eastern Nevada Test Site

SummaryAs part of a larger study to estimate groundwater recharge volumes in the area of the eastern Nevada Test Site (NTS), [Campana, M.E., 1975. Finite-state models of transport phenomena in hydrologic systems, PhD Dissertation: University of Arizona, Tucson] Discrete-state compartment model (DSCM) was re-coded to simulate steady-state groundwater concentrations of a conservative tracer. It was then dynamically linked with the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) optimization algorithm [Duan, Q., Soroosh, S., Gupta, V., 1992. Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resources Research 28(4), 1015–1031] in which both flow direction and magnitude were adjusted to minimize errors in predicted tracer concentrations. Code validation on a simple four-celled model showed the algorithm consistent in model predictions and capable of reproducing expected cell outflows with relatively little error. The DSCM–SCE code was then applied to a 15-basin (cell) eastern NTS model developed for the DSCM. Auto-calibration of the NTS model was run given two modeling scenarios, (a) assuming known groundwater flow directions and solving only for magnitudes and, (b) solving for groundwater flow directions and magnitudes. The SCE is a fairly robust algorithm, unlike simulated annealing or modified Gauss–Newton approaches. The DSCM–SCE improves upon its original counterpart by being more user-friendly and by auto-calibrating complex models in minutes to hours. While the DSCM–SCE can provide numerical support to a working hypothesis, it can not definitively define a flow system based solely on δD values given few hydrogeologic constraints on boundary conditions and cell-to-cell interactions.