An application of the distributed hydrologic model CASC2D to a tropical montane watershed

SummaryIncreased stormflow in the Quebrada Estero watershed (2.5 km2), in the northwestern Central Valley tectonic depression of Costa Rica, reportedly has caused flooding of the city of San Ramón in recent decades. Although scientifically untested, urban expansion was deemed the cause and remedial measures were recommended by the Programa de Investigación en Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (ProDUS). CASC2D, a physically-based, spatially explicit hydrologic model, was constructed and calibrated to a June 10th 2002 storm that delivered 110.5 mm of precipitation in 4.5 h visibly exceeded the bankfull stage (0.9 m) of the Quebrada flooding portions of San Ramón. The calibrated hydrograph showed a peak discharge 16.68% (2.5 m3 s−1) higher, an above flood stage duration 20% shorter, and time to peak discharge 11 min later than the same observed discharge hydrograph characteristics. Simulations of changing land cover conditions from 1979 to 1999 showed an increase also in the peak discharge, above flood stage duration, and time to peak discharge. Analysis using a modified location quotient identified increased urbanization in lower portions of the watershed over the time period studied. These results suggest that increased urbanization in the Quebrada Estero watershed have increased flooding peaks, and durations above threshold, confirming the ProDUS report. These results and the CASC2D model offer an easy-to-use, pragmatic planning tool for policymakers in San Ramón to assess future development scenarios and their potential flooding impacts to San Ramón.