Method of predicting tremors on the basis of seismicemission registered in exploitation workings

A method of tremor risk estimation on the basis of seismic emission registered in mining exploitation zones is presented in this paper. A considerable part of the emission registered in these conditions, is generated by mechanical devices used in the mine (miner transporters etc.). Therefore, it is not possible to evaluate the risk of mining rock-bursts properly on the basis of interpretation of emission using known theories and models describing rock mass fracturing. In a new approach presented in this paper, the tremor risk is determined on the basis of time variation of a parameter describing the attenuation of seismic vibrations of the rock medium. The attenuation is assessed from the analysis of seismic emission registered in the frequency range from 30 Hz to 1000 Hz. Information about this parameter is encapsulated in the seismic emission regardless of the means of its generation. The method of estimating the temporal variations of attenuation is based on the analysis of signal envelopes of the microseismic emission. Attenuation trends can be interpreted in a straightforward way. As the stress values keep increasing, the following processes take place in the rock mass: compaction (hardening), dilatancy (softening), and then possibly tremors. At the compaction stage attenuation values are lower, while they increase at the dilatancy stage. This mechanism has been proven in practice. Our results can be used for monitoring tremor risk.