Incorporating surface indicators of reservoir permeability into reservoir volume calculations: Application to the Colli Albani caldera and the Central Italy Geothermal Province

The Quaternary Roman Volcanic Province extends for over 200 km along the Tyrrhenian margin of the Italian peninsula and is composed of several caldera complexes with significant associated geothermal potential. In spite of the massive programs of explorations conducted by the then state-owned ENEL and AGIP companies between the 1970s and 1990s, and the identification of several high enthalpy fields, this resource remains so far unexploited, although it occurs right below the densely populated metropolitan area of Roma capital city. The main reason for this failure is that deep geothermal reservoirs are associated with fractured rocks, the secondary permeability of which has been difficult to predict making the identification of the most productive volumes of the reservoirs and the localisation of productive wells uncertain. As a consequence, almost half of the many exploration deep bore-holes drilled in the area reached a dry target. This work reviews available data and re-assesses the geothermal potential of caldera-related systems in Central Italy, by analysing in detail the case of the Colli Albani caldera system, the closest to Roma capital city. A GIS based approach identifies the most promising reservoir volumes for geothermal exploitation and uses an improved volume method approach for the evaluation of geothermal potential. The approach is based on a three dimensional matrix of georeferenced spatial data; the A axis accounts for the modelling of the depth of the top of the reservoirs based on geophysical and direct data; the B axis accounts for the thermal modelling of the crust (i.e. T with depth) based on measured thermal gradients. Both A and B data are necessary but not sufficient to identify rock volumes actually permeated by geothermal fluids in fractured reservoirs. We discuss the implementation of a C axis that evaluates all surface data indicating permeability in the reservoir and actual geothermal fluid circulation. We consider datasets on: i) distribution and density of tectonic lineaments; ii) temperature and iii) electric conductivity of shallow groundwaters; iv) partial pressure of dissolved CO2 in shallow groundwaters. The geothermal potential of Colli Albani and the implications for caldera-related geothermal systems in Central Italy are discussed based on the role of the geometry and structure of reservoirs in relationship with volcano-tectonic structures and deep geothermal fluid migration paths.