Plate coupling along the Manila subduction zone between Taiwan and northern Luzon

We use GPS data, trench parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), and bathymetry to infer plate coupling patterns along the Manila subduction zone. Using a block model and a fault geometry constrained by seismicity, we simultaneously solve for the location of Euler pole and angular velocity between the Sunda and Luzon blocks as well as the slip-deficit rate on plate interface. Our estimates show that the Euler pole between the Sunda and Luzon blocks is situated at southern Palawan near 8.3°N and 119.4°E with the angular velocity of 4.6 Myr−1. The estimated convergence rate along the Manila Trench continuously decreases southward from 91 mm/yr at the northern tip of Luzon to 55 mm/yr north of Mindoro. The inversion of GPS data reveals partially locked fault patches extending from the West Luzon Trough to the east of Scarborough Seamount chain. The slip-deficit rate in this region is in the range of 20–30 mm/yr corresponding to a coupling ratio of 0.4. However, the fault slip behavior is not well resolved near the North Luzon Trough. Based on a good correlation between locations of large subduction zone earthquakes and areas possessing gravity low, we investigate a variety of TPGA-based plate coupling models assuming different scaling between TPGA values and plate coupling ratios. The TPGA-based plate coupling models offer plausible rupture scenarios which are not constrained by current GPS data. The partially locked fault zone near 15–16.5°N may be associated with the subducted Scarborough Seamount wherein oceanic floor is highly fractured. The great subduction zone earthquake propagates beneath the Scarborough Seamount seems to be unlikely. The densification of GPS network in central Luzon and seafloor geodetic observations close to trench axis are crucial to distinguish the detailed fault coupling patterns and the role of subducted seamounts.

► The Manila subduction zone is predominately aseismic.
► Maximum plate coupling ratio of 0.4 between the West Luzon Trough and the Scarborough Seamount.
► The megathrust rupture along the entire Manila subduction zone is not likely.