Ionospheric anomalies possibly associated with M ⩾ 6.0 earthquakes in the Japan area during 1998–2010: Case studies and statistical study

In this paper, we examine pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in time series and perform a statistical test by using total electron content (TEC) derived from global ionosphere maps (GIM) around the Japan area for the first time. The normalized GIM-TEC (GIM-TEC*), which is computed based on 15 days backward running mean of GIM-TEC, have been investigated for minimizing possible confounding effects of consecutive earthquakes and identify the abnormal signals. Meanwhile, to reduce the effect of strong geomagnetic activities such as geomagnetic storms, the criterion for removing the GIM-TEC data have been adapted; that is when Dst index exceeds −60 nT. Temporal variations of GIM-TEC* for large and destructive earthquakes in Japan have been studied; which are the 2004 mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M6.8), its aftershock (M6.1), the 2007 offshore mid-Niigata Earthquake (M6.8), and the 2008 Iwate–Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (M7.2). Although there are some positive and negative TEC anomalies before and after the four earthquakes, there is a tendency that positive TEC anomalies appear 1–5 days before all the above earthquakes even during the quiet geomagnetic condition. Superposed epoch analyses have been performed for the statistical analysis of TEC anomalies associated with M ⩾ 6.0 earthquakes during the 12-year period of May 1998–May 2010. The statistical result indicates the significance of the positive TEC anomalies 1–5 days before earthquakes within 1000 km from the epicenter around Japan.

Research highlights
► Pre-earthquake TEC anomalies are investigated around Japan for 12 years.
► The first statistical evaluation for the EQ-related TEC anomalies in mid-latitude.
► The positive TEC anomalies appear 1–5 days before M ⩾ 6.0 earthquakes.