Coseismic responses and the mechanism behind MW 5.1 earthquake of March 14, 2005 in the Koyna–Warna region, India

An earthquake of Mw 5.1 occurred on March 14, 2005, in the seismically active Koyna–Warna region in western India, the site known for the largest reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) in the world. For more than four decades, earthquakes with M ⩾ 4.0 have occurred in this region at regular intervals. Impoundment of reservoirs and changes in lake levels can trigger earthquakes by two processes of stress modifications, namely direct loading effect of the reservoir and diffusion through various faults and fractures. In this paper we analysed the reservoir water level data at Koyna and Warna reservoirs prior to the occurrence of the March 14, 2005 earthquake, to explain the dominant mechanism behind its occurrence and its correlation with the observed coseismic changes. We conclude that the diffusion process, not the reservoir load effect, is the dominating mechanism triggering earthquakes in the region. The coseismic changes in deep well water levels sensitive to earth tides are found to be to the order of 1–12 cm.