Neotectonic fault analysis by 2D finite element modeling for studying the Himalayan fold-and-thrust belt in Nepal

This paper examines the neotectonic stress field and faulting in the fold-and-thrust belt of the Nepal Himalaya using the 2D finite element technique, incorporating elastic material behavior under plane strain conditions. Three structural cross-sections (eastern, central and western Nepal), where the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) has different geometries, are used for the simulation, because each profile is characterized by different seismicity and neotectonic deformation. A series of numerical models are presented in order to understand the influence of a mid-crustal ramp on the stress field and on neotectonic faulting. Results show that compressive and tensional stress fields are induced to the north and south of the mid-crustal ramp, and consequently normal faults are developed in the thrust sheets moving on the mid-crustal ramp. Since the shear stress accumulation along the northern flat of the MHT is entirely caused by the mid-crustal ramp, this suggests that, as in the past, the MHT will be reactivated in a future large (Mw > 8) earthquake. The simulated fault pattern explains the occurrence of several active faults in the Nepal Himalaya. In all models, the distribution of the horizontal σ1 (maximum principal stress) is consistent with the sequence of thrusting observed in the fold-and-thrust belt of the Himalaya. Failure elements around the flat–ramp–flat coincide with the microseismic events in the area, which are believed to release elastic stress partly during interseismic periods.