Rectilinear evolution in arvicoline rodents and numerical dating of Iberian Early Pleistocene sites

• We criticize a model based on an orthoevolutionary change of tooth size in Mimomys savini.
• This biochronological tool represents a case of fallacy of hasty generalization.
• It is based on a low number of samples of uncertain age taken in the Atapuerca TD section.
• The trend is better described by a random walk, or by a series of independent events.
• The ages obtained only add noise to the timing of the first human peopling of Europe.

Lozano-Fernández et al. (2013a) have recently published a method intended for numerical dating of Early Pleistocene sites, which is based on the assumption of uniform, constant rate increase through time of mean lower molar tooth length of water voles (Mimomys savini) in a number of levels sampled in the stratigraphic sequence of Atapuerca TD site. They suggest that the regression equation obtained in this local section for site chronology on tooth size could be useful for estimating the numerical age of other localities from southwestern Europe. However, in our opinion this biostratigraphic approach has severe conceptual and methodological problems, which discourage its use as a chronometric tool. These problems include that: (1) the logic behind their approach represents a ‘fallacy of hasty generalization’, because the results obtained for a local section are generalized to all possible stratigraphic sequences; (2) the study is based on tooth measurements from a limited set of samples taken in a single locality, which are represented by small numbers of specimens, cover a short time span and have a high level of age uncertainty; (3) the samples analyzed show small, statistically non-significant differences between their mean tooth length values; (4) the approach assumes a linear-straight, orthoevolutionary model of change at constant, monotonic rate for the apparent trend to increasing tooth size in the M. savini lineage; (5) these changes are better described in the Atapuerca TD section by a random walk, or even by a series of independent events, than by a model of rectilinear change; and (6) the application of this methodology to other localities such as the Orce sites, which preserve the oldest evidence of human presence in Europe, would mean that an equation adjusted within a restricted chronological range (1.01–0.8 Ma) is used for extrapolating the ages of sites that are clearly older (∼1.4 Ma).