A novel method for assessing the statistical significance of quantitative reconstructions inferred from biotic assemblages

We present a method to test the statistical significance of a quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstruction inferred from biotic assemblages with a transfer function. A reconstruction is considered statistically significant if it explains more of the variance in the fossil data than most reconstructions derived from transfer functions trained on random environmental data. Given reconstructions of several environmental variables from the same fossil proxy, the method can determine which is the best reconstruction, and if there is sufficient information in the proxy data to support multiple independent reconstructions. Reconstructions that fail this test have limited credibility and should be interpreted with considerable caution.

► A new method for assessing transfer function-based reconstructions is presented.
► The statistical significance of palaeoecological reconstructions is testable.
► Multiple independent, significant, reconstructions from one proxy are unlikely.
► It is possible to determine which of several reconstructions is the most important.