Settlement patterns as indicators of water level rising? Case study on the wetlands of the Great Hungarian Plain

The paper focuses on changes in settlement patterns on the frontier zones of wetlands and areas suitable for settling in the Great Hungarian Plain, Central Europe. Based on the statistical analysis of archaeological site elevations in a 4.128 km² lowland landscape, it is demonstrated that archaeological sites of the Árpád Period (AD 970-1300) were situated significantly (p = 0.01; n = 427) lower than those of the late medieval period (AD 1300-1540). Statistical results suggest that rising water levels are likely to have influenced the migration and transformation in settlement patterns from the Medieval Warm Epoch (mid-10th - mid-13th century) to the first part of the Little Ice Age (mid-13th century - mid-16th century). Zonal analysis also revealed close connections between flood-prone geomorphological features and spatiotemporal variations of settlement patterns during the medieval climate change. With regard to the lowland character of the extensive study area, its relatively high flood vulnerability and the numerous analogies from Europe and the Carpathian Basin, only one out of the multitude of factors influencing site selection, water level changes can be interpreted as a rational explanation for the vertical displacement of the settlement pattern.