Peak Car in Europe?

It is often argued that car travel demand has already reached a peak in developed economies. The interpretation of current trends in demographics and user preferences, as well as the increasing availability of alternative transport modes may give the impression that we have reached the age of lowering the dependence on the automobile. The factors that affect travel demand are, however, numerous and often affect car travel demand in opposing directions. The work presented here analyses the underlying factors that affect user choices and attempts to extrapolate their importance for the future across Europe. The methodology is based on the results of a recent EU-wide travel survey that maps user preferences and on the application of a Random Forest classification model that explains the interaction of the main variables that affect these choices.