An economic analysis of disaggregation of space assets: Application to GPS

New ideas, technologies and architectural concepts are emerging with the potential to reshape the space enterprise. One of those new architectural concepts is the idea that rather than aggregating payloads onto large very high performance buses, space architectures should be disaggregated with smaller numbers of payloads (as small as one) per bus and the space capabilities spread across a correspondingly larger number of systems. The primary rationale is increased survivability and resilience. The concept of disaggregation is examined from an acquisition cost perspective. A mixed system dynamics and trade space exploration model is developed to look at long-term trends in the space acquisition business. The model is used to examine the question of how different disaggregated GPS architectures compare in cost to the well-known current GPS architecture. A generation-over-generation examination of policy choices is made possible through the application of soft systems modeling of experience and learning effects. The assumptions that are allowed to vary are: design lives, production quantities, non-recurring engineering and time between generations. The model shows that there is always a premium in the first generation to be paid to disaggregate the GPS payloads. However, it is possible to construct survivable architectures where the premium after two generations is relatively low.