Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study

Lean satellite programs are programs in which the satellite development philosophy is driven by fast delivery and low cost. Though this concept offers the possibility to develop and fly risky missions without jeopardizing a space program, most of these satellites suffer infant mortality and fail to achieve their mission minimum success. Lean satellites with high infant mortality rate indicate that testing prior to launch is insufficient. In this study, the authors monitored failures occurring during the development of the lean satellite HORYU-IV to identify the evolution of the cumulative number of failures against cumulative testing time. Moreover, the sub-systems driving the failures depending on the different development phases were identified. The results showed that half to 2/3 of the failures are discovered during the early stage of testing. Moreover, when the mean time before failure was calculated, it appeared that for any development phase considered, a new failure appears on average every 20 h of testing. Simulations were also performed and it showed that for an initial testing time of 50 h, reliability after 1 month launch can be improved by nearly 6 times as compared to an initial testing time of 20 h. Through this work, the authors aim at providing a qualitative reference for lean satellites developers to better help them manage resources to develop lean satellites following a fast delivery and low cost philosophy while ensuring sufficient reliability to achieve mission minimum success.