Aggravation of north channels' shrinkage and south channels' development in the Yangtze Estuary under dam-induced runoff discharge flattening

Construction of dams on rivers has progressively affected the seasonal variability of runoff discharge, which has consequently produced remarkable impacts on the morphology of estuarine channels. This paper considers four-typical-order bifurcations of the Yangtze Estuary and adopts an ebb partition ratio (defined as the diversion ratio of ebb flow in a given branch divided by the total ebb tidal discharge immediately upstream of the river node where the bifurcation occurs) as a measure of water excavating force in the bifurcation channels. Results show that the seasonal variability of runoff discharge at Datong Hydrological Station (Datong) is flattened, being mainly driven by upstream runoff flattening observed at Yichang Hydrological Station (Yichang) and the tributary rivers. Yearly ebb partition ratios of the channels located to the north and south of the islands present decreasing and increasing trends respectively, and as also do the yearly north and south channel volume of the bifurcations. Yearly ebb partition ratio is proved to be an effective index to represent the water excavating force considering the stability of yearly ebb tidal discharge and its relationship with the channel erosion-deposition. River dams are the driving factors behind the runoff flattening at Datong because of their flattening effects on its main contributors (Yichang and tributary rivers). This flattening significantly helps reduce and enlarge the yearly ebb partition ratios of the north and south channels respectively, and then aggravates the shrinkage and development of the north and south channels separately. Yearly ebb partition ratio of the North Passage (NP) must be enlarged in order for the NP to maintain its function as a shipping channel.