Research papersDevelopment of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction

- A new hydrological-geotechnical model (CRESLIDE) has been developed.
- This coupled system is evaluated for September 2004 Ivan event in Macon county.
- CRESLIDE's physical coupling consistently improves the prediction of landslides compared to the original SLIDE model.

In this paper, we propose a new coupled hydrological-geotechnical model called CRESLIDE (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium), which can alleviate the chronic flaws of landslides simulation and prediction. CRESLIDE is designed to improve the original landslides model (SLIDE) through the coupling of hydrological model (CREST) and to deliver an integrated system for predicting storm-triggered landslides. This coupled system is implemented and evaluated in Macon County, North Carolina, where Hurricane Ivan triggered widespread landslides in September 2004 during the hurricane season. Model simulations from CRESLIDE show its reliability to predict landslides occurrence (location and timing). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrates that the coupled system (CRESLIDE) has higher specificity (94.10%) and higher sensitivity (11.36%) compared to the original SLIDE model (specificity = 93.32%, sensitivity = 10.23%) and a well-known landslide model (TRIGRS, whose sensitivity is 6.98%). This improved predictive performance demonstrates the advantage of coupling hydrological and geotechnical models with a more realistic representation of infiltration. It warrants a better depiction of the spatial and temporal dependence of hydrological and geotechnical processes in the course of the rainfall-triggered landslide event. This kind of model integration is useful for landslides prediction and early warning.