کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5779191 1634291 2017 26 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The application of machine learning for evaluating anthropogenic versus natural climate change
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
استفاده از یادگیری ماشین برای ارزیابی تغییرات اقلیمی در مقایسه با تغییرات طبیعی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
Time-series profiles derived from temperature proxies such as tree rings can provide information about past climate. Signal analysis was undertaken of six such datasets, and the resulting component sine waves used as input to an artificial neural network (ANN), a form of machine learning. By optimizing spectral features of the component sine waves, such as periodicity, amplitude and phase, the original temperature profiles were approximately simulated for the late Holocene period to 1830 CE. The ANN models were then used to generate projections of temperatures through the 20th century. The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 °C, and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 °C was estimated. This is considerably less than estimates from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and similar to estimates from spectroscopic methods.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: GeoResJ - Volume 14, December 2017, Pages 36-46
نویسندگان
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