Review ArticleMaximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone

- We present a historical seismicity catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone covering 2300 years.
- The maximum earthquake magnitudes along different fault zone sections are discussed in relation to key fault zone parameters.
- The largest earthquakes are exclusively observed along the older eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.
- The results suggest that the maximum magnitude in the Istanbul region would probably not exceed M 7.5.

Constraining the maximum likely magnitude of future earthquakes on continental transform faults has fundamental consequences for the expected seismic hazard. Since the recurrence time for those earthquakes is typically longer than a century, such estimates rely primarily on well-documented historical earthquake catalogs, when available. Here we discuss the maximum observed earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in relation to the age of the fault activity, cumulative offset, slip rate and maximum length of coherent fault segments. The findings are based on a newly compiled catalog of historical earthquakes in the region, using the extensive literary sources that exist owing to the long civilization record. We find that the largest M7.8-8.0 earthquakes are exclusively observed along the older eastern part of the NAFZ that also has longer coherent fault segments. In contrast, the maximum observed events on the younger western part where the fault branches into two or more strands are smaller. No first-order relations between maximum magnitudes and fault offset or slip rates are found. The results suggest that the maximum expected earthquake magnitude in the densely populated Marmara-Istanbul region would probably not exceed M7.5. The findings are consistent with available knowledge for the San Andreas Fault and Dead Sea Transform, and can help in estimating hazard potential associated with different sections of large transform faults.