The Indian Ocean Zonal Mode over the past millennium in observed and modeled precipitation isotopes

We examine the potential ramifications of nonstationary IOZM behavior using a synthesis of spatially distributed proxy archives of δ18Oprecip/δDprecip from both sides of the IOZM region spanning the past millennium. Our findings indicate that during the past millennium, a strong IOZM-like connection exists in the proxy data network, with anti-correlation between East Africa and Indonesia. However, the links are spatially limited and in some cases timescale-dependent. Nonlinear behaviors in these links suggest that the IOZM may be difficult to detect on a consistent basis in proxy records from the past millennium. Based on our modeling results, the inconsistent links in the IOZM proxy network may arise from temporally and spatially variable relationships between the IOZM, precipitation, and δ18Oprecip/δDprecip. We conclude that the IOZM's potential to influence the climate of the Indian Ocean region is inconsistently reflected in proxy data, and that due to the changing strength of the IOZM/δ18Oprecip/δDprecip relationship, its spatial “footprint” may be restricted on multi-decadal to multi-centennial timescales.