Prediction of Helicoverpa armigera Hubner on pigeonpea during future climate change periods using MarkSim multimodel data

- Growing degree days approach used to predict H. armigera in future climate periods.
- 3 emission scenarios, 7 models, 8 pigeonpea locations in India considered for study.
- 1-2 additional generations with reduced generation time predicted in future.
- Findings suggest possibility of increased incidence of H. armigera in future.

MarkSim simulation data of future daily maximum (T. max) and minimum (T. min) air temperatures from seven General Circulation Models (GCM) viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with Ensemble AVERAGE-AVG for three emission scenarios (A2, A1B & B1) were generated for eight pigeonpea growing locations of India to estimate the number of generations of Helicoverpa armigera Hub. using growing degree days (GDD) approach during future climate periods viz., 2020, 2050 and 2080 and were compared with 1975 as baseline period. It is predicted that higher number of generations of H. armigera would occur during the three future climate periods over baseline. One to two additional generations of H. armigera with reduction of generation time (15%) were predicted to occur with CSIRO-Mk3.5 and ECHams5 models due to higher temperatures during all three future climate periods. Geographical locations explained higher per cent (65-73%) of the total variation for number of generations and generation time followed by time period (21-32%). Higher number of generations with reduced generation time of H. armigera during future climate periods suggests that the incidence on pigeonpea could be higher due to the increases in temperature projected.