Perspectives of UV nowcasting to monitor personal pro-health outdoor activities

Nowcasting model for online monitoring of personal outdoor behaviour is proposed. It is envisaged that it will provide an effective e-tool used by smartphone users. The model could estimate maximum duration of safe (without erythema risk) outdoor activity. Moreover, there are options to estimate duration of sunbathing to get adequate amount of vitamin D3 and doses necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. The application requires information of starting time of sunbathing and the user's phototype. At the beginning the user will be informed of the approximate duration of sunbathing required to get the minimum erythemal dose, adequate amount of vitamin D3, and the dose necessary for the antipsoriatic heliotherapy. After every 20-min the application will recalculate the remaining duration of sunbathing based on the UVI measured in the preceding 20 min. If the estimate of remaining duration is <20 min the user will be informed that the deadline of sunbathing is approaching. Finally, a warning signal will be sent to stop sunbathing if the measured dose reaches the required dose. The proposed model is verified using the data collected at two measuring sites for the warm period of 2017 (1st April-30th September) in large Polish cities (Warsaw and Lodz). First instrument represents the UVI monitoring station. The information concerning sunbathing duration, which is sent to a remote user, is evaluated on the basis of the UVI measurements collected by the second measuring unit in a distance of ~7 km and 10 km for Warsaw and Lodz, respectively. The statistical analysis of the differences between sunbathing duration by nowcasting model and observation shows that the model provides reliable doses received by the users during outdoor activities in proximity (~10 km) to the UVI source site. Standard 24 h UVI forecast based on prognostic values of total ozone and cloudiness appears to only be valid for sunny days.