Adventitious match probability for autosomal profiles when primer binding site mutation is possible

The paper investigates the potential for an adventitious match as a result of a PBSM when, for example, a crime profile and person profile that have originated from two different individuals are found to be the same as a result of a PBSM in one of the profiles. It is demonstrated, both by theory and using simulations, that the effect of PBSMs is to slightly decrease the adventitious match probability from what it would had the same DNA system been used.