Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin, China

Runoff has been in decline in most river basins in China during the last 50 years. The Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River, has experienced runoff declines as large as 35% in the last century. Little is known regarding the relative contributions of climate and human impact to the observed hydrological trends in the Weihe River Basin. In the present paper, data from seven hydrological stations and 21 meteorological stations are used to analyze the long-term trends of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using the daily climatic data, a Variable Infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model is calibrated and verified to a baseline period from 1956 to 1970. Subsequently, natural runoff for the following years (1971-2006) is reconstructed using the VIC model without considering local human impacts. On the basis of observed meteorological data and runoff and the reconstructed runoff data from 1971 to 2006 in the Weihe River Basin, we quantified long-term trends and decadal and annual variations. The results showed that precipitation and runoff have decreased since the baseline decade. We further estimated the relative contributions of human activity and climate change to the hydrological response of the Weihe River Basin and determined that human activity (such as large-scale soil conservation practices and large irrigation areas) has a greater impact on basin runoff than do climate change factors. The percentages in change of runoff due to climate change (PC) are 36%, 28%, 53% and 10% in the 1970s, 1980s 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The percentages in change of runoff caused by human activity (PH) are 64%, 72%, 47%, and 90%, respectively.