Effectiveness of incentives on electric vehicle adoption in Norway

Battery Electric vehicles (BEVs) shift pollution off the road and to potentially less damaging and more varied sources than petroleum. Depending on the source of electricity, a transition to electrified personal transportation can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. However current EVs tend to be more expensive and have shorter range, which can hinder public adoption. Government incentives can be used to alleviate these factors and encourage adoption. Norway has a long history incentivizing BEV adoption including measures such as exemption from roadway tolls, access to charging infrastructure, point of sale tax incentives, and usage of public bus use limited lanes. This paper analyzed the sales of electric vehicles on a regional and municipal basis in Norway and then cross analyzed these with the corresponding local demographic data and incentive measures to attempt to ascertain which factors lead to higher BEV adoption. It was concluded that access to BEV charging infrastructure, being adjacent to major cities, and regional incomes had the greatest predictive power for the growth of BEV sales. It was also concluded that short-range vehicles showed somewhat more income and unemployment sensitivity than long-range vehicles. Toll exemptions and the right to use bus designated lanes do not seem to have statistically significant predictive power for BEV sales in our linear municipal-level models, but this could be due to neighboring major cities containing those incentive features.