Probability of Collision: Valuation, variability, visualization, and validity

Probability of collision (Pc) is becoming more popular as a tool to assess conjunction threats. In this paper, an overview of the types of Pc estimation techniques is provided. For each technique, the inputs it requires are delineated. Three-dimensional tools are then presented for depicting the variability of the Pc inputs to Pc estimates. These depictions are used to quantify the quality of Pc input data required to yield actionable Pc estimates. Relationships between Mahalanobis space and Pc are presented and used to derive bounding values for Type I and II errors.