Uncertainty quantification for discrimination of nuclear events as violations of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty

Enforcement of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) will involve monitoring for radiologic indicators of underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). A UNE produces a variety of radioisotopes which then decay through connected radionuclide chains. A particular species of interest is xenon, namely the four isotopes 131mXe, 133mXe, 133Xe, and 135Xe. Due to their half lives, some of these isotopes can exist in the subsurface for more than 100 days. This convenient timescale, combined with modern detection capabilities, makes the xenon family a desirable candidate for UNE detection. Ratios of these isotopes as a function of time have been studied in the past for distinguishing nuclear explosions from civilian nuclear applications. However, the initial yields from UNEs have been treated as fixed values. In reality, these independent yields are uncertain to a large degree. This study quantifies the uncertainty in xenon ratios as a result of these uncertain initial conditions to better bound the values that xenon ratios can assume. We have successfully used a combination of analytical and sampling based statistical methods to reliably bound xenon isotopic ratios. We have also conducted a sensitivity analysis and found that xenon isotopic ratios are primarily sensitive to only a few of many uncertain initial conditions.