Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms

► Historically, reserves have been over-estimates of future production. ► S-curve fits to the production history indicate that long-term world production, including the current cumulative production, will be 680 Gt. ► The historical range for curve fits made on an annual basis from 1995 to 2009 is 653 Gt to 749 Gt, 14% in percentage terms. ► Less than World Energy Council reserves plus cumulative production, 1,163 Gt. ► Five times less than the amount of coal that the UN panel on climate change (IPCC) assumes is available for production.