Factors affecting the probability of windthrow at stand level as a result of Gudrun winter storm in southern Sweden

A storm in January 2005 in southern Sweden (Gudrun) caused large damage to forests, archaeological sites, buildings, power supply, telecommunications, and infrastructure. In this work, we analyzed the factors affecting the probability of windthrow at stand level (i.e. tree- and stand characteristics) in southern Sweden. We selected a sub-sample (1721 plots) of existing plots from the Swedish National Forest Inventory (inventoried in 2003 and 2004). To assess whether these plots had suffered damage or not, aerial photographs were taken in summer 2005. In order to analyze the effects of measured characteristics on damage, field data for each sub-sample plot were merged with the corresponding result of the aerial photo interpretation.We found that the plots damaged were typically well stocked mature stands, dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), and often also recently thinned. Probability of damage increased with increase in stand height. In mixed stands, decrease of proportion of Norway spruce decreased the probability of damage. An admixture of deciduous trees, leafless in this winter storm, showed larger effect in this sense than that of Scots pine.

► We model the effects of winter storm Gudrun on wind damage in southern Sweden.
► We combine monitoring data with aerial photo interpretation to describe post damage effects.
► Increasing the proportion of other tree species in Norway spruce stands decrease damage risk.
► Short rotations with early thinning also seem to reduce wind damage.
► The methodology used can be used to describe post damage effects in large forest areas.