کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8895153 1629898 2018 53 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل تغییرات آب و هوایی بر منابع آب تحت نامطمئن با استفاده از رویکرد بهینه سازی شبیه سازی
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 556, January 2018, Pages 523-538
نویسندگان
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