Using genetic algorithms to optimize the analogue method for precipitation prediction in the Swiss Alps

The global optimization was applied to some variants of the analogue method for the Rhône catchment in the Swiss Alps. The performance scores increased compared to reference methods, especially for days with high precipitation totals. The resulting parameters were found to be relevant and coherent between the different subregions of the catchment. Moreover, they were obtained automatically and objectively, which reduces the effort that needs to be invested in exploration attempts when adapting the method to a new region or for a new predictand. For example, it obviates the need to assess a large number of combinations of pressure levels and temporal windows of predictor variables that were manually selected beforehand. The optimization could also take into account parameter inter-dependencies. In addition, the approach allowed for new degrees of freedom, such as a possible weighting between pressure levels, and non-overlapping spatial windows.