Does intra-individual change predict offender recidivism? Searching for the Holy Grail in assessing offender change

Offender rehabilitation effectively reduces recidivism for treatment groups compared to control groups, but there is less evidence demonstrating that intra-individual changes are related to reductions in risk. We review and critique academic and government literature linking individual change scores to recidivism, focusing on three key treatment domains: cognition, violence, and substance misuse. Database searches identified 378 studies measuring change, but only 53 studies yielding 49 explicit tests of the relationship between intra-individual change scores and recidivism outcome. Of the 49 available tests, 26 effect sizes (53.1%) were significant, ranging from small (d = 0.06) to large (d = 1.48). Across all domains, change variables significantly related to recidivism included known dynamic risk factors: antisocial attitudes, antisocial beliefs, antisocial associates, antisocial personality, social support, and substance misuse. Two additional findings centered on changes in negative emotion and successful treatment process. This review further suggests there is a need to utilize better measurement strategies and more sophisticated constructs. Additional practical, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed.

► We review measures used to assess intra-individual change among offenders.
► We examined constructs in the cognitive, violence, and substance use domains.
► Few direct tests of change predicting criminal recidivism were available.
► Known dynamic risk factors were the best predictors in all domains examined.
► Research could advance through refined measurement strategies and constructs.