Spatial and temporal patterns in modeled particle transport to estuarine habitat with comparisons to larval fish settlement patterns

Larval fish settlement in estuarine nursery areas is the end result of numerous biological and physical processes. We used a numerical circulation model coupled to a particle transport model to examine the role that physics play in determining settlement patterns of red drum larvae (Sciaenops ocellatus) in nursery habitat along the Texas coast. We examined supply at various spatial scales (supply to inlet, bays, and individual settlement sites). Temporal patterns in larval settlement in Aransas Bay, Texas, are correlated with several indices of modeled particle supply (number of particles inside the bays, integrated particle input to Lydia Ann Channel, and cumulative number of competent particles in Lydia Ann Channel). High abundances of recently settled red drum in Aransas Bay result from a combination of high larval input, limited habitat for settlement, and proximity of habitat to the inlet. In contrast, larval settlement in Corpus Christi and Redfish Bays does not appear to be related to modeled measures of larval supply. Modeled particle supply at the bay-scale suggests that difference in the abundance of recently settled red drum between the bays may be related to larval supply normalized by the amount available settlement habitat within the bay.