The trophic state of the Baltic Sea a century ago: a model simulation study

We apply a 3-D circulation model with a biogeochemical module (ERGOM) for the simulation of trophic conditions in the Baltic Sea a century ago. One aim is to provide reference or background data for nitrogen, phosphorus and chlorophyll, which is required for the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). We assume that the situation a century ago serves this purpose well. Model input for this long-term simulation study are the regionally differentiated riverine and atmospheric nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, which were compiled and calculated for a situation 100 years ago on the basis of various literature sources. For the mixed surface layer of the open Baltic Sea, we suggest maximum winter concentrations for dissolved phosphorus (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) of 0.23-0.35 (2.7-3.7) mmol/m3. Maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations are between 1.8 and 2.4 mg/m3. The concentrations of all parameters for different coastal waters vary in a wide range, depending on exposure to nutrient sources. Our nutrient concentrations for the situation a century ago are close to early measured data (1950-1960) and suggest that this data is suitable as reference data, as well.