Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population

• A model to assess the radiation effects on wild population is described.
• The model is based on non-linear Leslie matrix.
• The model is applied to small mammals living in an irradiated meadow.
• Model output is conservative if effect-dose factor estimated from L50 is used.
• Systemic response to stress of populations in competitive conditions may be more effective.

The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear. In particular, the effects of radiation are modelled by relating the increase in the mortality rates of the individuals to the dose rates through a proportionality factor C. The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The comparison of the model results with the data selected from the above mentioned experiments showed that the model overestimated the detrimental effects of radiation on the size of irradiated populations when the values of C were within the range derived from the median lethal dose (L50) for small mammals. The described non-linear model suggests that the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, can be a factor that determines a more effective response of population to the radiation effects.