A framework for a seismic risk model for Greater Cairo

Following the adverse effects caused by the moderate Ms 5.4 event of October 1992, the need to model the risk from earthquakes occurring in or near Cairo was shown to be an essential tool to offset this threat in the future. To provide the necessary elements for a risk model, this paper describes a methodology for developing a ground-shaking model as well as an inventory database for the city. In the first part, a scheme is followed to integrate data on geological structures, seismic sources, seismicity and surface soil conditions to build-up an event-based hazard model. In the second part, a brief review of the history of seismic provisions in Egyptian codes is presented, and a detailed assessment of local maps and information is supplemented by results from street surveys to obtain building stock data and geographical resolutions. On the basis of these studies, the city is divided into a number of census-tracts, or geo-codes, of classified building and soil characteristics, representing a fundamental step towards the development of a full loss model.