Measures of larval lake whitefish length and abundance as early predictors of year-class strength in Lake Michigan

Many lake whitefish stocks in Lake Michigan have experienced substantial declines in growth and condition since the 1990s. Reduced growth and condition could result in reduced quality or quantity of eggs produced by spawning females, which in turn could negatively impact recruitment. We evaluated the potential for reduced recruitment by measuring early life stage density and length, and we discuss the utility of these measures as early indicators of lake whitefish year-class strength. Overall, mean larval density (number per 1000 m3 ± SE) in Lake Michigan was greater in 2006 (373.7 ± 28.3) than in 2005 (16.6 ± 24.8); whereas, mean length (mm ± SE) of larval lake whitefish was smaller in 2006 (12.87 ± 0.07) than in 2005 (14.38 ± 0.13). The ratio of zooplankton to fish density did not show an expected relationship with larval fish density or length. Rather, variation in larval density was best explained by a multiple-regression model that included larval length, spring wind intensity, and adult stock density as predictor variables. Our results suggest that the density of larval lake whitefish is not directly regulated by temperature or zooplankton density at the time of emergence, but that a potential for density-dependent regulation exists when larval emergence rates are high. We conclude that the observed declines in growth and condition of adult lake whitefish are not resulting in substantial reductions in recruitment.