Large-scale 700 hPa Height Patterns Associated with Cyclone Passage and Strong Winds on Lake Erie

The difference in 700 hPa height patterns was examined on a seasonal basis between years with high numbers and low numbers of cyclone passages through Lake Erie, and high and low numbers of strong wind events at Cleveland Hopkins Airport. These show that both cyclones and strong wind events often are associated with atmospheric patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Custom teleconnection indices were derived from these maps of 700 hPa height differences, and the seasonal means of each of these indices were linearly regressed against the number of cyclones and the number of strong wind events in that season for each year. This procedure led to moderate, but statistically significant, correlation coefficients. This gives some basis for probabilistic prediction of cyclone passages and strong wind events at Lake Erie. Actual application in prediction will require skill also in predicting the geopotential heights, and predictions generalized over larger areas may have greater significance and robustness.