Anthropogenic iodine-129 in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas: Numerical modeling and prognoses

A numerical model simulation has been used to predict extent and variability in the anthropogenic 129I pollution in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas region over a period of 100 years. The source function of 129I used in the model is represented by a well-known history of discharges from the Sellafield and La Hague nuclear reprocessing facilities. The simulations suggest a fast transport and large inventory of the anthropogenic 129I in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. In a fictitious case of abrupt stop of the discharges, a rapid decline of inventories is observed in all compartments except the North Atlantic Ocean, the deep Nordic Seas and the deep Arctic Ocean. Within 15 years after the stop of releases, the model prediction indicates that near-equilibrium conditions are reached in all compartments.