Simulation of land use impacts on groundwater levels and streamflow in a Virginia watershed

Increase in withdrawal and decrease in recharge of groundwater due to urbanization influences subsurface flow regimes. The overall objective of this study was to determine the impact of land development activities on the subsurface flow regime in the Upper Roanoke River Watershed (URRW). A regional groundwater model of the URRW was constructed using Modular Three-Dimensional Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW) and calibrated for steady-state conditions. Then, eight land use management scenarios were simulated on the Back Creek (BC) subwatershed to assess the impacts of residential density, residential location, and land-cover on hydraulic head of groundwater and streamflow. The average recharge output from the Hydrological Simulation Program, FORTRAN (HSPF) simulation was used as the direct input to MODFLOW to take changes in land use into account in the BC watershed. Development of agriculture and forest areas with low-population density on larger area (low-density scenario), near the middle of the watershed (mid-section scenario), and with changes all open space to lawn (lawn scenario) had greatest overall impact on the BC watershed for both hydraulic head and streamflow among density, location, and land-cover scenarios, respectively. The simulated scenarios indicated that decreases in both hydraulic head and streamflow coincided with the increases in impervious land. The reductions in hydraulic head and streamflow were restricted to the subwatershed where land use changes occurred. The urbanization impacts on both surface and subsurface regimes were very local with 20.8 cm of maximum difference in local hydraulic head and 0.532% of maximum percent difference in local streamflow at lawn scenario while average corresponding values through BC watershed was 4.3 cm and 0.153%, respectively. Use of a fully distributed surface model in a dynamic manner was recommended to solve the inconsistencies in the spatial and temporal scale of surface and groundwater models. However, the proposed approach can be used as a management and planning tool for evaluating the local and overall impacts of land use management on the surface and subsurface flow regimes.