Climate change response of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (Spain) using a hydrodynamic finite element model

The study of impacts of the global climate change in the coastal lagoons, specially in the Mediterranean region, is an important starting point for all the vulnerability studies, risk assessment and management consideration about the mitigation measurements for these areas. The coastal lagoon of Mar Menor has been chosen in order to investigate the response of a transitional environment to A2 IPCC scenario using a numerical tool. A model to reproduce the hydrodynamical processes and the salinity and temperature distribution in the Mar Menor (Spain) was developed. The hydrodynamic model was forced with real wind and water level data (1985–1986) and the results of the simulation were used to calibrate the hydrodynamic model. Simulations of salinity and temperature were carried out in order to validate the model and to reproduce measurements for the year 1997. The model results show a good agreement with data and the model is able to reproduce the salinity and temperature field in the Mar Menor. The climate change simulation was carried out applying the A2 anomalies for 2100 to the 1997 input data set, in order to evaluate the response of the basin in terms of water exchange temperature and salinity variations. The results of the climate change simulation show an increase of the annual mean temperature of 3.28 °C and a decrease of the salinity value of 1.53 PSU.